Possible long term vs probable short term
My base case for the long term outcome of the giant ZIRP/NIRP experiment being conducted on all of us (to bring about growth and moderate inflation), is that NIRP will not succeed, but will eventually lead to helicopter money that will do the trick (and overshoot on the “moderate inflation” part enough to make a lot of central bankers whisperyell “I told you so!” behind closed doors).
Continue reading “Years of permanently 0%-ish low-risk real returns”
The most feared, most powerful person on the planet is feared by politicians and central bankers alike. She’s not a billionaire, she’s not a celebrity. She’s a retiree. Baby boomer. And also part of the (still) richest generation and the (still) most powerful voting block. And you know what she REALLY doesn’t like? Nominal losses. Everything else is more or less bearable, but nominal losses on income and assets are unacceptable to her. She is the reason why central bankers are engaging in unbelievable gymnastics to conjure up inflation instead of letting bad public and private debts go into default and bad investments go bankrupt. It’s the only way to avoid nominal losses on pension investments and assets.
Continue reading “The greatest power and wealth transfer in history”