In 12 months, anything related to crowdfunding is going to be radioactive

Wonderful (and ominous) article to mark the top of the first real crowdfunding cycle. It’s going to be ugly, but the model (and at least some of the current players) will emerge stronger and cleaner on the other side with a more mature business model and a more qualified and risk-aware investor base.

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More robots and geriatric baristas, OR ELSE…

Happened upon this piece about age dependency ratio, which is (people under 15 + people over 65)/the rest, highlighting the challenges ahead for countries with an increasingly upside down population pyramid. This includes all of the West and then some. This is related to employment population ratio and specifically the increase in old people participating in the labor force in ever larger numbers.

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Looking behind US (un)employment rate

US centric: I recently read an excellent article on unemployment and supposed full employment, but decided to clarify and visualize the situation a bit for myself by employing different periods than supposed periods of “full employment” and just see, how the employment situation has changed during the last 4 recoveries. Over the 35 year period (1981-2016) the population pyramid has changed quite a bit with life expectancy at birth increasing about 4.5 years while, at the same time, people 65 years and older have been participating in the workforce in significantly larger numbers, but the latter data only goes back to 2008. So, to eliminate the effects of a top-heavier population pyramid and incomplete data on the change in employment population numbers regarding senior citizens, I decided to go with employment population ratio (ages 25-54) (EPR) peaks that preceded the recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The present cycle’s termination point is in march 2016, which has shown the highest reading of 78.0, after the last recession.

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Gold as protection against “armageddon” is bullshit

Weird hobbies are fine

Holding gold as a speculative position or as part of a “balanced portfolio” is fine. After all, there are creepier hobbies, like collecting dolls or competitive eating. But holding a significant chunk of your assets in gold to protect yourself against some end-of-the-world scenario is just silly.

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